Quarterly Market Commentary

August 1, 2022

Second Quarter 2022

Global Market and Economic Perspective Global Economic Commentary During the second quarter of 2022, higher inflation and lower real economic growth continued to worsen throughout developed and emerging countries around the world. Headline CPI inflation again hit multi-decade highs in the US, UK, Germany, and a number of other countries. In Europe and emerging market…

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May 2, 2022

First Quarter 2022

Global Market and Economic Perspective Global Economic Commentary Financial markets were hit hard when Russia invaded Ukraine in late February. The war, and the Western sanctions that followed, exacerbated food and energy supply problems. As Russian energy exports were threatened with restrictions, prices jumped and already-high inflation accelerated. In the US, inflation hit 40-year highs,…

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February 3, 2022

Fourth Quarter 2021

Global Market and Economic Perspective Global Economic Commentary The big story during the fourth quarter of 2021 was the resurgence in inflation across countries worldwide. US inflation was higher than in most other countries, with some measures showing price gains at a pace not seen in nearly 40 years. There was no single category or…

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November 1, 2021

Third Quarter 2021

Global Market and Economic Perspective Global Economic Commentary During the third quarter, both the US and the European Union saw growth of real GDP slow sharply from the second quarter’s rapid rate. The slowing of the recovery after the Covid shutdowns can be at least partially attributed to another wave of infections over the summer.…

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July 3, 2021

Second Quarter 2021

Global Market and Economic Perspective Global Economic Commentary US real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2021 was lower than expected, but still strong enough to return nominal GDP to its pre-Covid level. Healthy growth in personal consumption expenditures was offset somewhat by a decline in investment spending. The Covid and lockdown induced recession…

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April 3, 2021

First Quarter 2021

Global Market and Economic Perspective Global Economic Commentary The first quarter of 2021 marked one year since the COVID-induced lockdowns from last March. In the US, first quarter economic growth continued its recovery from the sharp declines of the first half of 2020. Personal consumption expenditures were buoyed by the massive stimulus payments to individuals,…

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January 4, 2021

Fourth Quarter 2020

Global Market and Economic Perspective Global Economic Commentary Resurgent Covid-19 infections led to another round of lockdowns in a number of locations, including parts of Europe and the UK. This weighed on economic activity and raised the specter of a second recession. China bucked this trend by reporting relatively strong fourth quarter GDP growth. In…

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October 4, 2020

Third Quarter 2020

Global Market and Economic Perspective Global Economic Commentary After the sharpest downturn on record in this year’s second quarter, the US economy rebounded fairly strongly in the third quarter. Despite the rapid growth in GDP during the third quarter, output was still 3.5% below its peak level in the fourth quarter of 2019. Because the…

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July 4, 2020

Second Quarter 2020

Global Market and Economic Perspective Global Economic Commentary In our first quarter Market & Economic Perspective piece, we stated that the economic impact of the coronavirus would not be seen until the second quarter. Now that much of the data are available, we saw that the US suffered the swiftest start to a recession ever,…

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April 4, 2020

First Quarter 2020

Global Market and Economic Perspective Global Economic Commentary Although the Coronavirus (COVID-19) began in China in late 2019, its rapid spread and the resulting government lock-down measures to combat the virus did not materially affect the global economy until the end of the first quarter. The true economic impact of COVID-19 will not be seen…

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January 4, 2020

Fourth Quarter 2019

Global Market and Economic Perspective Global Economic Commentary The US economy remained on an upward trajectory in 2019. The current decade-long recovery since the global financial crisis is a record for economic expansions in the US. Fourth-quarter GDP growth was not overly strong, at a bit over 2%, due to a somewhat slower increase in…

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October 4, 2019

Third Quarter 2019

Global Market and Economic Perspective Global Economic Commentary Real GDP growth in the US slowed again in the third quarter, falling to just below 2.0%. This slowing can be at least partially attributed to the disappearance of the one-off tax cut stimulus. In addition, agriculture and manufacturing suffered from a lack of progress in settling…

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July 4, 2019

Second Quarter 2019

Global Market and Economic Perspective Global Economic Commentary GDP growth in the US slowed again in the second quarter, although it remained above 2.0%. This slowing can be at least partially attributed to the disappearance of the one-off tax cut stimulus. In addition, agriculture and manufacturing suffered from a lack of progress in settling the…

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April 4, 2019

First Quarter 2019

Global Market and Economic Perspective Global Economic Commentary GDP growth in the US remained at a healthy level of 3.0% or better during both the fourth quarter of 2018 (data release was delayed due to the government shutdown) and the first quarter of 2019. As a result, the unemployment rate has stayed below 4.0% thus…

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January 5, 2019

Fourth Quarter 2018

Global Market and Economic Perspective Global Economic Commentary Normally, we would have the fourth quarter GDP numbers for the US when issuing this report. However, these have not been normal times. The lengthy US government shutdown that began a few days before Christmas has meant delays in releasing economic reports and data, including GDP. Although…

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October 5, 2018

Third Quarter 2018

Global Market and Economic Perspective Global Economic Commentary Third-quarter GDP growth in the US continued its strong pace seen earlier in the year. However, the good headline number masked some potentially troubling underlying data points. While increased government spending was a big contributor and consumption was relatively good, there was weakness in home building (new…

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July 5, 2018

Second Quarter 2018

Global Market and Economic Perspective Global Economic Commentary The second quarter of 2018 saw US real GDP growth continue its upward trend. The advance estimate was a rate of 4.1%. This was driven in part by strong consumption, as household finances continue their decade-long improvement. Strong export growth was also a factor; many attribute this…

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April 1, 2018

First Quarter 2018

Global Market and Economic Perspective Global Economic Commentary In the first quarter of 2018, real GDP growth in the US picked up further – to an annual rate of 2.9%. The economic expansion since the recession of ‘08-‘09 is on track to become the second longest in history. Only the 10-year growth span from 1991…

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