Quarterly Market Commentary
Fourth Quarter 2020
Global Market and Economic Perspective Global Economic Commentary Resurgent Covid-19 infections led to another round of lockdowns in a number of locations, including parts of Europe and the UK. This weighed on economic activity and raised the specter of a second recession. China bucked this trend by reporting relatively strong fourth quarter GDP growth. In…
Read MoreThird Quarter 2020
Global Market and Economic Perspective Global Economic Commentary After the sharpest downturn on record in this year’s second quarter, the US economy rebounded fairly strongly in the third quarter. Despite the rapid growth in GDP during the third quarter, output was still 3.5% below its peak level in the fourth quarter of 2019. Because the…
Read MoreSecond Quarter 2020
Global Market and Economic Perspective Global Economic Commentary In our first quarter Market & Economic Perspective piece, we stated that the economic impact of the coronavirus would not be seen until the second quarter. Now that much of the data are available, we saw that the US suffered the swiftest start to a recession ever,…
Read MoreFirst Quarter 2020
Global Market and Economic Perspective Global Economic Commentary Although the Coronavirus (COVID-19) began in China in late 2019, its rapid spread and the resulting government lock-down measures to combat the virus did not materially affect the global economy until the end of the first quarter. The true economic impact of COVID-19 will not be seen…
Read MoreFourth Quarter 2019
Global Market and Economic Perspective Global Economic Commentary The US economy remained on an upward trajectory in 2019. The current decade-long recovery since the global financial crisis is a record for economic expansions in the US. Fourth-quarter GDP growth was not overly strong, at a bit over 2%, due to a somewhat slower increase in…
Read MoreThird Quarter 2019
Global Market and Economic Perspective Global Economic Commentary Real GDP growth in the US slowed again in the third quarter, falling to just below 2.0%. This slowing can be at least partially attributed to the disappearance of the one-off tax cut stimulus. In addition, agriculture and manufacturing suffered from a lack of progress in settling…
Read MoreSecond Quarter 2019
Global Market and Economic Perspective Global Economic Commentary GDP growth in the US slowed again in the second quarter, although it remained above 2.0%. This slowing can be at least partially attributed to the disappearance of the one-off tax cut stimulus. In addition, agriculture and manufacturing suffered from a lack of progress in settling the…
Read MoreFirst Quarter 2019
Global Market and Economic Perspective Global Economic Commentary GDP growth in the US remained at a healthy level of 3.0% or better during both the fourth quarter of 2018 (data release was delayed due to the government shutdown) and the first quarter of 2019. As a result, the unemployment rate has stayed below 4.0% thus…
Read MoreFourth Quarter 2018
Global Market and Economic Perspective Global Economic Commentary Normally, we would have the fourth quarter GDP numbers for the US when issuing this report. However, these have not been normal times. The lengthy US government shutdown that began a few days before Christmas has meant delays in releasing economic reports and data, including GDP. Although…
Read MoreThird Quarter 2018
Global Market and Economic Perspective Global Economic Commentary Third-quarter GDP growth in the US continued its strong pace seen earlier in the year. However, the good headline number masked some potentially troubling underlying data points. While increased government spending was a big contributor and consumption was relatively good, there was weakness in home building (new…
Read MoreSecond Quarter 2018
Global Market and Economic Perspective Global Economic Commentary The second quarter of 2018 saw US real GDP growth continue its upward trend. The advance estimate was a rate of 4.1%. This was driven in part by strong consumption, as household finances continue their decade-long improvement. Strong export growth was also a factor; many attribute this…
Read MoreFirst Quarter 2018
Global Market and Economic Perspective Global Economic Commentary In the first quarter of 2018, real GDP growth in the US picked up further – to an annual rate of 2.9%. The economic expansion since the recession of ‘08-‘09 is on track to become the second longest in history. Only the 10-year growth span from 1991…
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